Phoenix Housing Market Update - Seller Momentum Grows as CMI Rises

The Cromford Market Index is a reliable way to track short-term real estate trends in Greater Phoenix. It measures the balance between supply and demand, which makes it one of the clearest indicators of whether current conditions lean toward buyers or sellers. When the Index rises, sellers gain leverage. When it falls, buyers see leverage.

Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 18 largest cities. Date: 12/5/25

Over the past week, market conditions have shifted strongly in favor of sellers, with demand rising noticeably and supply declining faster than typical for this time of year.

As a result, green circles now outnumber red 15 to 3, with Scottsdale and San Tan Valley both flipping from red to green since last week. The average monthly change in CMI has climbed to +6.4%, a sharp increase from +3.6% the week prior.

Fountain Hills and Chandler continue to lead the market for sellers, while Queen Creek, Peoria, Maricopa and Tempe have each jumped by 10% or more. On the buyer-leaning side, Paradise Valley remains the standout with an 11% drop in CMI over the month, though that decline is far smaller than last week and PV actually improved for sellers when looking solely at the past seven days.

The only other buyer-favored cities slipped by 3% or less, and both Avondale and PV have begun reversing course. Surprise is now the only city still trending toward buyers. Encouragingly, even the three lowest-ranked cities are moving significantly in favor of sellers.

Overall, the region now reflects 8 seller’s markets, 4 balanced markets, and 6 buyer’s markets.

CMI decode:
Green up arrow = month-over-month improvement for sellers, meaning the Cromford Index is above 110
Red down arrow = month-over-month improvement for buyers, meaning the Index is below 90
90–110 = balanced
≥110 = sellers market
≤90 = buyers market