Arcadia Real Estate Market 2025: Housing Trends, Prices & Inventory (85018 Report)

Executive Summary - Year To Date (2025)

Arcadia’s residential real-estate market (ZIP 85018) shows a noticeable shift toward a balanced environment in 2025. 

Active listings climbed steadily from January to September, while closed and pending sales were relatively flat. 

Price trends remained stable; median list prices hovered around $1.9M–$2.5M and sold median prices around $1.5M–$1.7M. 

Sale‑to‑list ratios remained healthy (96‑97 %) but sale‑to‑original‑list ratios dipped (down to 90 % mid‑year), indicating that sellers often made price reductions before closing. 

Days on market lengthened and months of inventory increased from 2.5 months in January to 6 months by September, signaling a move from a sellers’ market to a more balanced market. 

Active volume and new volume both increased sharply toward September, suggesting more high‑value inventory coming to market while sold volumes remained flat.

Market Data by Category

1. Number of Listings

• Active listings trended upward through the year, indicating growing supply.

• New listings fluctuated but rose noticeably in late summer.

• Closed and pending listings stayed relatively stable, implying steady but not surging demand.

2. Price Trends

• Active and new median list prices stayed between about $1.9M and $2.5M, ending near the upper end in September.

• Sold median sale prices were stable around $1.5M–$1.7M.

• A sharp rise in new median list price in September suggests higher‑end or luxury listings entered the market.

3. Sale/List Price

• Sale‑to‑list price ratios remained around 96–97 %, showing that homes generally sold close to their list prices.

• Sale‑to‑original‑list ratios dipped to 90 % mid‑year, indicating sellers often had to reduce their initial asking prices to sell.

4. Days on Market

• The average days on market gradually increased over the year, reaching 80–90 days by September, reflecting slower transaction pace.

5. Months of Inventory

• Inventory rose from approximately 2.5 months in January to about 6 months in September, moving from a seller‑favoured environment (< 3 months) to a balanced market (≈ 6 months).

6. Volume

• Active volume grew steadily and spiked dramatically in September ($400M).

• New volume declined in early spring but increased again in late summer.

• Sold volume remained relatively flat, meaning more inventory sat unsold while the value of properties on the market increased.

Causes Behind the Trends

• Higher supply: Active and new listings rose because more homeowners listed properties, including luxury homes, as interest‑rate lock‑in effects lessened and new builds/resales entered the market.

• Affordability pressures: Elevated mortgage rates constrained buyer budgets, softening demand and increasing negotiation leverage for buyers.

• Market normalization: Following rapid price gains in previous years, Arcadia’s market is stabilizing with modest price growth.

• Segment variations: Luxury properties continued to attract buyers, explaining the late‑year spike in new median list prices and active volume; mid‑range homes faced more pressure due to affordability constraints.

Implications for Buyers & Sellers

For Buyers

• Opportunities:

• Greater inventory and longer days on market mean more choices and time to negotiate favourable terms.

• Late‑year increase in high‑end listings may offer opportunities to purchase luxury homes that were scarce previously.

• Considerations:

• Prices remain high by historic standards; expect modest negotiation room rather than steep discounts.

• Mortgage rates are still elevated, so ensure payments fit your budget.

• Strategies:

• Get pre‑approved for a mortgage to be ready to act when a good home appears.

• Use days‑on‑market data to gauge seller motivation; properties listed longer may be negotiable.

• Explore adjacent neighbourhoods or price ranges if budget constraints are tight.

For Sellers

• Advantages:

• Median sale prices are stable and sale‑to‑list ratios remain high, indicating that well‑priced homes still sell near asking price.

• Luxury segment demand persists, benefiting high‑end sellers.

• Challenges:

• Increased competition from rising inventory and longer days on market mean sellers must price appropriately and prepare properties for a discerning buyer pool.

• Sale‑to‑original‑list ratio declines suggest that over‑pricing leads to eventual price reductions.

• Strategies:

• Price your home realistically from the outset to minimize time on market and avoid later price cuts.

• Invest in staging and marketing to stand out.

• Be open to negotiations on closing costs or concessions as buyers have more leverage.

Outlook & Closing Notes

Arcadia’s market is transitioning to a balanced state after years of seller dominance. Inventory growth and stable prices should provide a healthier environment for both buyers and sellers. Over the next several months, expect price growth to remain modest while inventory stays elevated. Mortgage rates will continue to influence buyer demand; any significant decline in rates could re‑energize the market, whereas further rate increases may amplify the shift toward a buyer‑leaning environment.